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Aboriginal People in Manitoba 2000 Chapter 1 : Demographics

It is often said that Aboriginal people are now experiencing a “baby boom” similar to the post-war experience of the general population. This is not at all true. The original baby boom originated in a sharp spike in fertility rates (number of births per woman) following the period of depressed fertility during the Depression and Second World War. This produced a demographic bulge of persons, born in 1946 to 1964, who distinctly outnumbered older and younger age cohorts. Because of their numbers, these “baby boomers” became the fashion trendsetters of their age. Demographically, their outstanding fashion statement was the fact that they themselves had relatively few children, resulting in the “baby bust” of subsequent decades.

The current “population explosion” of Aboriginal children, by contrast, occurs in the context of sharply declining fertility rates among Aboriginal women. Recent analyses of historical trends based on Indian Register data 24 have indicated average national fertility rates for First Nations women have declined from 5.7 births in 1970, to 4.1 in 1975, to 3.4 in 1980, to 3.2 in 1985, to 2.7 in 1990 and 2.55 in 1995.

The fertility rate for Status Indians remains 50% higher than for the general population (1.8 births per woman) and the decline in the fertility rate has been more than offset by increases in the numbers of women in their young child bearing years. This has not resulted in a demographic bulge, but in a birth rate (births per 1,000 population per year) that has stabilized at almost twice that of the non-Aboriginal population. The large numbers of young children, aging into their reproductive years, guarantees that Aboriginal birth rates will remain extremely high in Manitoba for several decades to come, regardless of declining fertility rates.

The three Prairie provinces have the highest fertility rates for First Nations women in the country. This combined with a generally younger age profile, means that birth rates in the Prairies for Status Indians will remain well over the national average, and that the Prairie provinces’ share of the national First Nations population will continue to increase. On the other hand, the increase in the total Aboriginal population will be slowed by the lower birth rate among the Metis, who are also concentrated in the Prairie provinces.