February 28, 2003
The potential for spring flooding is quite low across most of southern Manitoba because of below average snow cover, according to the Manitoba Conservation Water Branch’s first spring run-off outlook for the year, based on watershed conditions as of late February.
A flood potential exists in portions of western Manitoba where soil moisture and snow cover are above average. The area west of PTH 10 from Hamiota north to Mafeking could experience localized flooding of low-lying agricultural lands with normal weather conditions from now on.
Red River
Flooding is not expected on the Red River and its tributaries this spring. The chance of flooding due to possible adverse weather is less than one in ten.
Assiniboine River and Souris River
Minor flooding is possible on the Assiniboine River from Shellmouth to Brandon and along the Souris River from Coulter to Hartney with normal weather conditions from now through April. There is a one in ten chance that adverse weather could result in more significant flooding similar to that of 2001.
Winnipeg River and Saskatchewan River
Flooding is very unlikely on the Winnipeg River or the Saskatchewan River as both these watersheds have well below average snow cover at this time.
Duck and Porcupine Mountains Region
Snow cover is quite heavy in the Duck and Porcupine Mountain areas where substantial rains last August raised soil moisture to above average levels. Flooding on streams in this region could potentially develop with normal additional precipitation and a rapid snow melt. However, it is unusual for the snow in the high wooded areas to melt quickly, so flooding is unlikely on most streams with average weather conditions from now on.
Lakes
Levels of many Manitoba lakes are below average for this time of year. Levels of Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipegosis, Lake Winnipeg, Lake Of The Woods as well as some smaller lakes could be significantly below desirable levels after spring run-off unless above average precipitation develops between now and June.
Weather conditions during the next few months will have a significant effect on the chances for spring flooding or possible water shortages.
This is a preliminary forecast only and weather events between now and spring breakup could significantly alter flooding potential. Manitoba Conservation will be monitoring precipitation events closely and will be issuing its next forecast in late March. Bulletins will be more frequent if there is a significant increase in flood risk.
- 30 -
RETURN