March 28, 2003

Spring flooding will be limited to portions of the upper Assiniboine River and the Duck Mountain area in western Manitoba, while the Red River Valley and other areas of Manitoba will escape flooding with normal spring weather, according to the Manitoba Conservation Water Branch’s second and final spring flood and water supply outlook.

The Red River is expected to crest in the Winnipeg area at the end of March, about two weeks earlier than usual. The Forks walkways will not be flooded and the Red River Floodway will not be operated this spring unless heavy rain develops.

In the upper Assiniboine River, flooding will be minimal with normal spring weather but could be significant with a rapid melt and rainfall. Run-off has just begun in this area and is being delayed by cool weather.

Crests on the Assiniboine River are expected before mid-April but this will depend on the weather. High outflows from Shellmouth Reservoir had been maintained to provide additional storage for flood control. However due to the gradual melt the outflow will be reduced on March 28. With normal weather conditions only minor flooding of valley lands is expected from the Shellmouth Dam to Grand Valley west of Brandon. The Portage Diversion will be operated as required to prevent ice jamming along the river from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg.

Significant flooding could occur on Assiniboine River tributaries from Shellmouth to Millwood if a rapid melt and/or rain develops.

Flooding is no longer anticipated on the Souris River unless significant rain develops.

Streams flowing off the Duck Mountains may experience some flooding if the melt is rapid or accompanied by rain. Some streams in this area experienced minor flooding early this week due to the rapid melt last weekend.

Large lakes such as Lake Winnipeg, Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipegosis, Lake Of the Woods and Reindeer Lake will be significantly lower than average following spring run-off unless heavy precipitation develops.

Run-off is well under way in most areas of southern Manitoba after last weekend’s very mild weather. The run-off is generally well below average in south central and southeastern Manitoba but near normal in southwestern Manitoba.

Conditions are very dry from the Red River west to PTH 10 and between Lake Manitoba and PTH 5. While larger reservoirs are expected to be nearly full after spring run-off, smaller reservoirs, dugouts and shallow aquifers are experiencing little or no recharge and are very low. Water shortages may develop in these areas unless above average rainfall develops this spring or summer.

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