May 28, 2004

Weather forecasts today indicate that the rainstorm expected to cross southern Manitoba over the next few days may not be as heavy as estimated earlier. Rainfall of 20 mm is expected over much of the southern region from the U.S. border north to Dauphin and Gimli. Heavier local rainfalls of up to 50 mm are possible where significant thundershowers develop and on escarpmental areas from Morden to Dauphin, according to Environment Canada.

Rain is also expected over much of southern Saskatchewan, the U.S portion of the Red River watershed and most of the Winnipeg River watershed in NW Ontario. The Rainy River system in Ontario may receive 50 to 70 mm of rain.

• Very wet soil conditions in southeast Manitoba will result in significant run-off from the expected rainfall this weekend.

• Larger streams should remain in their banks, however localized flooding of fields ditches and drains may occur on Sunday and Monday in areas receiving 25 mm or more of rain.

• The Red River watershed and areas east to the Whiteshell are most vulnerable due to already wet fields.

• Levels of the Red River have declined half a foot to one foot from Emerson to Winnipeg and about 0.3 feet from Lockport northward in the past 24 hours.

• The Forks walkways should emerge tomorrow as the level in downtown Winnipeg dips below 8.5 feet.

• Indications are that this weekend’s rain will cause only minor rises of one to two feet on the Red River in Manitoba next week.

• Normal summer levels may not be achieved for several weeks.

• Levels of the Roseau River are cresting today in areas from the U.S. boundary to Dominion City.

• The level at Stuartburn is 1.5 feet below flood stage.

• Levels from Gardenton to Dominion City are expected to rise another foot during the weekend rain, with crests occurring quickly due to local run-off.

• The river is expected to remain within its banks unless the rain turns out to be heavier than expected.

• The Winnipeg River continues to rise as a result of heavy rains in recent weeks.

• The level at Nutimik Lake was 904.2 feet this morning and is expected to rise to 905 feet without additional rain.

• If heavy rain develops as expected during the next three to four days over the Ontario portion, the Winnipeg River levels in Manitoba may rise to within a foot or two of the July 2002 crest. During that flood, the level at Nutimik rose to 907.4 feet or 6.4 feet above the normal summer level.

• Significant run-off could also occur in the Whitemud River watershed, the east slopes of Riding Mountain and in the southern Interlake.

• Cottagers and recreational interests along the river are advised to take appropriate precautionary actions to minimize damages to dock, boathouses and other property. Boating is not recommended due to the strong current.

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