November 01, 2004

Manitoba Water Stewardship reports significant rises along the Red River are expected over the next 10 days as a result of recent heavy rains in the United States.  While river levels are unusually high for this time of year, all are expected to remain well within their banks unless additional heavy rain develops in the next few weeks.

·         Heavy rain in the U.S. portion of the watershed last Friday night (Oct. 29) is causing very significant run-off and river rises.  The river has risen up to 11 feet at some U.S. points during the past seven days.

·         The Manitoba portion of the Red River has experienced rises ranging from 4.6 feet at Emerson to 2.3 feet at Ste. Agathe since last Tuesday.

·         The level in downtown Winnipeg this morning was 4.6 feet, a rise of just 0.34 feet since last Tuesday.  The St. Andrews Dam at Lockport is now fully open and not affecting river levels in Winnipeg.

·         Levels of the Red River are expected to rise a further 13 feet at Emerson, 10 feet at Ste. Agathe, five feet in downtown Winnipeg and 3.5 feet at Selkirk by the time the crest arrives.

·         The crest is expected at Emerson Nov. 8, Ste. Agathe Nov. 10 and  Winnipeg Nov. 11.  This forecast is based on normal weather conditions for the next few weeks.

·         Current weather forecasts are not calling for additional heavy rain.

·         Significant additional rises are expected from Grand Forks northward according to the U.S. National Weather Service.

·         The crest will likely occur before river ice develops.  Formation of slush-like ice called frazil ice later in November, as occurred in November 2000, is unlikely although not impossible.

·         The Hydrologic Forecast Centre also advises that levels of the Roseau River and many other streams in southeastern Manitoba are unusually high.  However most have crested during the past week except the Roseau River which will rise a further half foot or so this week.  Some further rises may also be expected on the Winnipeg River and the Bloodvein River.

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