October 05, 2005

The high water warning for the south basin of Lake Winnipeg continues. The Colorado low is moving north as expected, producing rain, snow and strong winds.

·         Northeast winds of 50 to 70 km/hour developed over the south basin of Lake Winnipeg this morning and are expected to continue until late tonight.

·         Based on Environment Canada weather maps, winds are expected to be northerly 35 to 50 km/hour tomorrow morning and decrease to north 20 km/hour in the afternoon.

The strong northeast wind is producing high water levels on the west shore of Lake Winnipeg from Hnausa to Chalet Beach.

·         Waves this morning were up to the base of recently constructed dikes in some areas.

·         Lake levels will continue to rise until at least midnight and possibly until early tomorrow morning.

·         There is little change in the peak lake level forecasts from those issued yesterday. Peak levels due to wind set-up alone could produce levels up to 718 feet from Arnes to Winnipeg Beach and up to 719 feet from Dunnottar to Chalet Beach.

·         Wave uprush of 2.5 to 3.3 feet is likely to occur on top of these levels, depending on slope of the shoreline and the exposure to northeast winds. Wind action and shoreline damage will be the strongest in the afternoon and this evening.

Serious shoreline damage is likely to occur along the west shore in unprotected areas and minor flooding could develop in some areas not yet protected by emergency diking. General flooding of developed areas is unlikely, especially with the recently constructed dikes.  Erosion should be less along the east shore and flooding is not expected in that area.  

Levels on the east shore, including Victoria, Patricia and Grand beaches, are likely to remain below 717 feet with a potential 1.5- to two-foot wave uprush. Levels and wave action in this area will be at their maximum early tomorrow when the wind direction switches to north-northwest.

Levels in the Lake Winnipeg Delta area including Netley and Petersfield may rise to 719.5 feet with an additional one foot for wave uprush.

Observed levels at 9 a.m. today

·         Gimli 716.5 feet (winds northeast 42 gusting to 65 km/hour)

·         Victoria Beach 715.9 feet

·         Breezy Point 716.3 feet

·         Berens River 714.9 feet (light east wind)

Wind eliminated levels today

·         Wind eliminated level for the lake today: 715.1 feet

·         Average wind eliminated level for today: 713.6 feet (based on period 1977-2004)

Wind eliminated levels for mid-October

·         Expected wind eliminated level for Oct. 15: 714.80 feet

·         Average wind eliminated level for Oct. 15: 713.45 feet (1977-2004)

For safety reasons people should avoid areas along the lakefront where flood protection construction is underway.

Manitoba Water Stewardship advises that seasonal water levels in southern areas of Lake Manitoba will be unusually high today due to the strong northeast winds. Levels of the lake near Westbourne could rise to 814.5 feet which is similar to the level observed on July 18 and among the highest levels observed during the past 30 years. The level of the lake near Westbourne this morning was 813.8 feet.

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