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Manitoba Water Stewardship

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Forecasts for Rivers, Lakes and Reservoirs

2008 - Manitoba Lakes Condition Tables & Reservoir Status Chart - August 14th, 2008

Northern Manitoba Lakes Condition Table

Southern Manitoba Lakes Condition Table

Reservoir Status

Tables showing current levels and forecasts for selected lakes and reservoirs in Manitoba are attached. The tables also show the target levels and desirable range as well as some comparative levels for 2007. Note that there are two tables for the lakes (northern lake and southern lakes). Use the scroll bar at the bottom to go from one to the other. Some highlights of the report follow:

Lake levels:
  • The level of Lake Winnipeg is 714.98 feet, just slightly below the top of the licensed operating range. The lake has declined about 0.1 feet since its crest a few weeks ago and is expected to continue to decline through the autumn unless much above normal precipitation develops. Manitoba Hydro has released the maximum possible outflow since July 18 but will begin to decrease outflows next week.
     
  • The level of Lake Manitoba has risen somewhat due to much above average rainfall during the past few months and currently stands at, but at 812.4 feet, just one tenth of a foot below the top of the operating range. The lake is expected to decline gradually from now on unless much above average precipitation continues. No changes in log settings at Fairford Dam are anticipated at least for the next few months.
     
  • Lake St. Martin is at 801.25 feet which is about half a foot below the level where difficulties begin to develop. The lake is expected to decline slowly from now through the autumn.
     
  • The level of Lake Winnipegosis is still about two feet above the desirable range but is somewhat lower than during the past few years.  It should continue to decline slowly unless heavy rainstorms develop.
     
  • Lake of the Woods has declined about half a foot during the past 4 weeks and is now just slightly above the top of the desirable range. The Lake of the Woods Control Board began to decrease outflows on August 14. A gradual decline in the lake level is expected unless above average precipitation develops.
     
  • The level of Dauphin Lake has declined and it now just slightly above the summer target. The outflow will be decreased when the wind eliminated level reaches 855 feet.
     
  • Levels of Whiteshell area lakes not located on the Winnipeg River have declined significantly during the past three weeks but are close to their summer targets, except West Hawk Lake which is somewhat low. Logs were placed at most lakes last week to try to maintain suitable levels. However levels could decline further if the dry weather of recent weeks in the area continues.
     
  • Lakes along the Winnipeg River from Dorothy Lake to the Ontario boundary have declined about one foot from the late July crests but are still 3-5 feet above average. Difficulties with docks, boathouses and low-lying parklands should gradually diminish as levels are expected to fall close to three feet during the next four weeks.
     
  • Smaller lakes in the Interlake region, such as the Shoal Lakes have risen due to heavy rainfall and are now at flood stage. Levels of most smaller lakes elsewhere in southern Manitoba are in the desirable range although Pelican Lake and Whitewater Lake are about one foot below their summer target levels.
     
  • Lake levels in the vicinity of The Pas are in the desirable range.
     
  • Many lakes in northern Manitoba are still at lower than average levels due to unusually dry weather this past spring but most have recovered significantly due to above average July rains. Lakes along the Churchill River are at above average levels. Some lakes along the Nelson River are unusually high or low due to dam operations associated with maximum outflows from Lake Winnipeg.

Lakes usually decline during August and September when lake evaporation exceeds precipitation for most years.

Manitoba Water Stewardship acknowledges the assistance of Water Survey of Canada and Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation in contributing data to this report.
Forecasting and Flood Response Coordination, Regulatory and Operational Services, Manitoba Water Stewardship

2008 - River Condition Report for Manitoba - June 23rd, 2008
 
Red River:

The river crested in the Winnipeg area June 21 at 9.5 feet and the level this morning had declined to just under 9 feet. It is expected to decline to 8.5 feet (walkway level) by tomorrow and to near the normal summer level of 6.4 feet by next weekend, based on little precipitation. The level at Emerson was still 11 feet above average this morning but is declining quite rapidly.

Assiniboine River:

The river is near average at Russell, one foot above average at Brandon and 0.5 feet above average at Headingley for this time of year. Flows and levels are declining significantly from St. Lazare to Winnipeg and should be back to normal by the end of this week. The level of Shellmouth Reservoir of 1404.25 feet is above average and will enable continued releases of 300 cfs for the summer, boding well for Assiniboine River conditions in the months ahead.

Souris River:

The flow is presently near 140 cubic feet per second (cfs) which is close to median flow and well in excess flows during many dry years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service needs to release a minimum of 20 cfs from storages in North Dakota from June to October but is presently releasing 140 cfs. Flows will likely decline within a few weeks unless significant rain develops.

Winnipeg River:

The river level at Nutimik Lake is 3.8 feet above average and is expected to rise a further 0.6 feet during the next two weeks. Cottagers are experiencing some difficulties with docks and boathouses. Levels should begin to decline two weeks from today unless significant rainfall develops.

Waterhen River, Fairford River:

The Waterhen River flow is presently near the upper decile (1:10 chance) and the Fairford River flow is near the upper quartile. Flows will continue to be well above average this summer, but will be declining unless above average rainfall develops.

Saskatchewan River:

The river is two feet above its normal level for this time of year and is likely to rise another 0.3 feet before it crests next weekend. The high levels are not a significant concern but are creating some difficulty for boaters and fishers.

Churchill River:

Levels and flows of the river are slightly above average and not expected to rise significantly further. There are no difficulties.

Nelson River:

The flow is presently near the upper quartile condition and is likely to continue above average this summer unless very dry weather dry weather develops.

Small Streams:

Most smaller streams in southern Manitoba have near normal flows for this time of year. The Little Saskatchewan River and the Roseau River have above average flows. Some tributaries of the Souris River have somewhat below average flows.

Many small streams in northern Manitoba have below average flows due the exceptionally dry weather conditions during the past few months.
Forecasting and Flood Response Coordination, Regulatory and Operational Services, Manitoba Water Stewardship

2008 - Updated Forecast for the Red River - June 16th, 2008

  • The Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Water Stewardship advises that the Red River continues to rise due to heavy rainfall June 6-12, 2008. The crest is presently a Grand Forks, North Dakota.

  • At Emerson the river has risen 13 feet since early June and is expected to rise another 6 feet before it crests on June 22.

  • At Ste. Agathe the river has risen 8.7 feet since early June and is expected to rise another 4.9 feet before it crests on June 24.

  • In downtown Winnipeg the river level this morning stood at 8.1 feet above datum, a rise of 1.7 feet since early June. It is expected to crest between 9 and 10 feet above datum June 24-26.

  • Public Works and Government Services Canada (PWGSC) will continue to operate St. Andrews Dam at Lockport to maintain levels below 8.5 feet (Forks walkway level) in Winnipeg for as long as possible. However a minor inundation of the walkways is expected for a period of one week beginning this weekend.

  • Levels just upstream of St. Andrews dam have been declining due to opening of the dam. PWGSC will provide information regarding operation of the locks for boat traffic as usual.

  • River levels from Selkirk to Breezy Point will rise 4 to 6 feet above normal summer levels which will not present any significant difficulties.

  • While the Red River will be well above average for the next few weeks it will remain well within its banks unless additional widespread heavy rain develops during the next few weeks.

  • Boaters and canoeists are advised that the river current will be stronger than usual for the next few weeks, and therefore caution is advised.

Hydrologic Forecast Center, Regulatory & Operational Services, Manitoba Water Stewardship
 

2008 - Effect on June 11th Rainstorm on Hydrologic Conditions in Southern Manitoba - June 12th

  • The storm of June 11-12 has brought a general rainfall of 50 mm to southwestern Manitoba with unofficial reports of up to 75 mm in some portions of the Souris River watershed.
     

  • The heavy rain in southwestern Manitoba fell on an area which had been unusually dry until early June and will be beneficial for water supplies in the area. However the rain may have been too much all at once for those areas which already received significant rainfall during the previous 10 days. There is significant standing water in some fields in the area. Smaller streams in the area are now have some flow. The Assiniboine River, Souris River and Pembina River are expected to rise a few feet but will remain well within their banks. The rain may produce some improvement in water supplies of dugouts where temporary sources of water can be found for pumping. It is expected that the heavy rain will improve the levels of shallow aquifers and cause some rises in the levels of Oak Lake, Whitewater Lake and Pelican Lake.
     

  • The Westman area including Riding Mountain and Duck Mountain received 10-25 mm while south-central and southeastern Manitoba and the Interlake received about 10-15 mm. In many areas the rain fell on soils already wet from two previous rainstorms in June and therefore has produced some standing water and river rises. However streams are all expected to remain well within their banks. Dams will be operated as necessary to maintain suitable water levels.
     

  • Levels of the Red River continue to rise due to significant rainfall in the United States and Manitoba portions during the past 10 days. The level at Emerson has already risen 2.3 meters (7.5 feet) and is expected to rise an additional 2.3 meters before it crests on June 23. However the river will remain well within its banks at all points. The crest at Winnipeg based on little additional precipitation will be close to 9 feet above datum which could result in a minor overtopping of the walkways for a few days around June 25.
     

  • The weather outlook calls for unsettled weather for the next few days but additional precipitation should be light and will have little effect on river conditions. However any additional heavy rainstorms during the next few weeks could result in flooding problems in many areas of southern Manitoba.
     

  • Precipitation maps for recent storms are posted on our web site at: http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/maps.html
     

  • A map for the June 11-12 storm will be posted later today of tomorrow.

Hydrologic Forecast Center, Regulatory & Operational Services, Manitoba Water Stewardship

2008 - Special Statement on Rainstorm & Effect on Water Supplies - June 6th

  • A significant storm moving northward from the United States has brought a very substantial rain to most areas of southern Manitoba. As of noon today rainfall amounts appear to range from 25 to 40 mm over most of south central Manitoba including the Red River Valley.  Rainfall has been less in western Manitoba and extreme eastern Manitoba where 10 to 20 has fallen in most areas. The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) reports that some areas of western Manitoba such as Virden, Hamiota and Russell have received less than 5 mm so far, but may receive some additional rainfall later today. More information on rainfall will become available during the next few days after the storm ends.
     

  • As of noon the rain had virtually ended over the Red River Valley but significant rain was still falling over the Westlake region and portions of the Interlake. MSC indicates that a second area of rain over the Dakotas is likely to move northward into south central and southeastern Manitoba later today. They advise that this could produce an additional 10-20 mm of rain with possible local heavier amounts if thunderstorms develop. It is unlikely that western Manitoba will be affected by the second wave. MSC longer range weather forecasts indicate unsettled weather through at least Monday with the possibility of some additional rain.
     

  • Most of the rainfall is soaking into relatively dry soils and will likely be very beneficial for agriculture. There will also be some runoff, which will raise river flows back into the normal range at least for the next few weeks. Moisture conditions over much of southern Manitoba should be back to normal as a result of this rain. However there will be no runoff in most of southwestern Manitoba, leaving most streams and dugouts dry in the area. Fortunately the Oak Lake Aquifer still has plenty of water to meet needs for the rest of 2008 enabling water hauling from loading stations. Also the Souris River will continue to flow this summer due to releases from storage in North Dakota, as per international agreement.
     

  • Water supply reservoirs in southern Manitoba are generally full or close to full at this time. There should be very few unusual water supply problems in 2008 if precipitation from now through the summer is close to average, with the exception of southwestern Manitoba.
     

  • Areas of northern Manitoba, north of a line through The Pas and Norway House, are not expected to receive any significant rainfall from the present storm system, leaving the surface very dry. This area of northern Manitoba received generally less than 5 mm of rain during May.

Hydrologic Forecast Center, Regulatory & Operational Services, Manitoba Water Stewardship

2008 - June
2008 - Spring Runoff and River Conditions
2008 - Spring Flood Outlook for Southern Manitoba
2007 - August
2007 - July
2007 - June
2007 - May
2007 - April
2007 - March
2007 - February
2007 - January
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