Manitoba Water Stewardship

Moderate southwest winds are expected to become light tonight and switch to strong easterly by tomorrow morning. Strong northeast winds are expected tomorrow afternoon to Saturday morning. Some showers are expected tomorrow and significant rain is possible Sunday to Monday.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ASSINIBOINE RIVER FROM SHELLMOUTH TO MILLWOOD.

The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir decreased to1410.25 feet this morning and the outflow decreased to 1560 cfs due to moderate southwest winds. The conduit outflow may be increased this afternoon if winds persist. Conduit flows will need to be decreased to zero by noon tomorrow due to strong northeast winds expected in the afternoon. The total outflow is not expected to exceed 1700 cfs tomorrow or in the days ahead unless heavy rain develops.

The reservoir is presently near its crest and additional rises will be primarily due to wind. Levels will continue to fluctuate as winds change. A peak level of 1410.45 feet is expected tomorrow evening.

While showers are expected tomorrow, they are likely to be light and should not affect river flows or reservoir levels noticeably. However there is a concern about possible significant rainfall Sunday to Monday. It is still too early to tell how much rain will fall upstream and downstream of Shellmouth Reservoir. More will be known tomorrow.

Levels of the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Brandon are declining slowly as flows on the Qu’Appelle River and other tributaries downstream of Shellmouth Dam decline. Levels continue to be near bankfull from Shellmouth Dam to Millwood but are well below bankfull at points further downstream.

Red Deer Lake:

An updated levels is nor available but it is estimated that the lake has declined 0.3 feet during the past few days and is now three-quarters of a foot below the crest observed a week ago. Levels will decline progressively faster based on favourable weather.

Lake Winnipegosis:

The level of Lake Winnipegosis is high and still rising. The lake is expected to crest in late May at an elevation slightly lower than that of last year. Some flooding of low lying lands near the lake is likely during days with strong onshore winds

Carrot River—Saskatchewan Boundary to 14 miles west of The Pas :

Levels of the Carrot River are beginning to decline a little faster and this trend will continue unless heavy rain develops. Flooding some fields near the river from the Saskatchewan boundary about 14 miles west of The Pas should end by early next week.

Saskatchewan and Carrot Rivers at The Pas

River levels at the Pas have risen slightly during the past few days due to increased outflows from Tobin Lake in eastern Saskatchewan last weekend. Levels at the Pas are expected to change little for another 10 days to two weeks. This will prevent natural drainage from the Pasquia area just southwest of The Pas and will require pumping by Manitoba Water Stewardship and MIT staff to continue. However the upstream portions of the Pasquia area are now free of flooding and pumping is now limited to portions closer to the Saskatchewan River.

A flood sheet for the Swan River area is not available for today.