The 50 mm rainstorm upstream of Shellmouth Reservoir during the past few days is producing significant runoff and will result in rising inflows for the next 5-7 days. It is still too early to predict inflows accurately. However it appears that the inflow will crest at about 2500 cfs early next week. The outflow is now projected to crest at 1900 cfs May 29-31. The conduit will be decreased to zero in the next day or two, so the peak outflow will be entirely over the spillway. A peak outflow of 1900 cfs would flood some of the low lying agricultural lands downstream of the Dam and therefore a flood warning is now in effect. However it is possible that more than half of the agricultural lands from the Dam to Millwood may not experience flooding if weather conditions are favourable from now on. The next chance of rain is for Tuesday, May 29.

The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir was unchanged from yesterday morning due to reduced north winds and still stood at 1410.30 feet this morning. The inflow is lower than yesterday due to less rain on the reservoir, but it will soon be increasing. The conduit flow was increased from 200 to 300 cfs this morning in order to maintain a total outflow of 1750 cfs.

Rainfall of close to 50 mm in the Dauphin, Swan River and lower Red Deer River areas during the past two days has caused flash flooding in some localities with a few road washouts according to regional MIT staff. Streams in this area are reported to be running two-thirds full with some flowing higher than during the crest in April. It is expected that damage may be significant. Levels of Red Deer Lake will rise but should crest about one foot lower than in early May.

Heavy rain has also caused localized flash flooding in portions of the Interlake. Emergency Management and regional staff have reported that some homes at Peguis First Nations required pumping and some diking to alleviate flooding caused by overland flows. The Fisher River is well below flood stage and is expected to remain so.

Rainfall during the past 5 days has ranged from 30-50 mm in most other portion of southern Manitoba. The rain was welcome in many areas as conditions had become quite dry. The rain was excessive and too intense in some portions of southern Manitoba where heavy thunderstorms occurred late Monday evening.

Rainfall in the Whiteshell area was in the 15-25 mm range and will produce little runoff. Lake levels are being closely monitored to see whether any outflow adjustments will be needed.