The Shellmouth Reservoir water level was virtually unchanged at 1410.25 feet during the past 24 hours. Winds have been calm in the reservoir area since yesterday morning and this has enabled a better estimate of the present inflow based on the change in storage in the reservoir. The local inflow from the 989 square mile ungauged area (larger than the Shell River watershed) around the reservoir is not directly measured and had been difficult to estimate since last week’s rainstorm due to windy conditions which did not enable it’s computation from changes in reservoir levels. The good news is that the present total inflow to the reservoir is only about 1850 cfs, significantly less than what was estimated in recent days.

The reservoir outflow has remained unchanged since yesterday morning and stands at 1750 cfs of which 400 cfs is going through the controlled conduit. Conduit flows will be adjusted as required to prevent total outflows from exceeding 1750 cfs as long as possible.

With the somewhat lower inflows, it now appears that it will be possible to prevent total outflows from exceeding 1750 cfs, unless significant additional rain develops in the next few weeks. The amount of rainfall from the next weather disturbance Monday to Tuesday will very significant. The present forecast on the attached spreadsheet does not yet include the possible effects of this rain.

Minor flooding of the lowest lands in the Assiniboine Valley from Shellmouth Dam to Millwood is taking place at this time, mostly due to lack of good drainage due to the high river levels rather than due to overflows.

Portions of the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Brandon have been experiencing some rises since the rain. However the crest is already in the St. Lazare area and rises of less than one foot are expected in the Virden to Grand Valley portion.