Manitoba Water Stewardship

A weakening upper low remains over the Dakotas and will continue to produce cool unsettled weather for southern Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan for the next few days. Most areas will receive some precipitation tomorrow and Friday but amounts should be generally in the 10 mm range or less.

Precipitation during the 24 hour period ending this morning was minimal over Manitoba with most of the thunderstorm activity occurring east of the Manitoba-Ontario boundary.

Winds over Shellmouth Reservoir are expected to be moderate to strong from the north today and tomorrow.

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ASSINIBOINE RIVER FROM SHELLMOUTH TO MILLWOOD.

The Shellmouth Reservoir water level rose another 0.07 feet during the past 24 hours and stood at 1410.29 feet this morning under relatively light winds.

The reservoir inflow had risen to 2130 cfs this morning and is expected to crest at 2250 cfs at the end of this week based on little additional rainfall. Flows continue to rise slowly on the Whitesand River at Canora SK and on the Assiniboine River at Kamsack but have crested at Sturgis SK. The Shell River is presently at its crest near Inglis.

The total reservoir outflow was 1750 cfs at 10:00 a.m. this morning of which 300 cfs was going through the controlled conduit. Conduit flows will continue to be adjusted as required to account for changes in wind and inflows. If precipitation during the next few weeks is somewhat below average it should be possible to keep total outflows from exceeding 1750 cfs. Reservoir water levels would begin to subside by about June 4.

Saskeram Area:

Serious flooding has developed in the Saskeram area between the Carrot River and the Saskatchewan River in Manitoba west of The Pas. Ducks Unlimited reports that the flooding is the worst seen in the last 25 years. Water levels in portions northwest of The Pas have flooded farmers fields and are making it difficult for cattle to find dry ground or sufficient pasture. Water is getting quite close to some buildings in the Birch River area. It appears that the flooding in the Saskeram is largely due to overflows of the Carrot River near the Manitoba-Saskatchewan boundary during the first two weeks of May. A significant breach in the river bank was noted just west of the boundary at a location which had been repaired in 2006. The large volumes of overflow appear to have been slowly moving eastward in recent weeks, filling swamps and small lakes in their path. The flows reached areas near The Pas last weekend, causing significant rises and flooding. Ducks Unlimited have opened Bracken Dam in order to allow water to drain in the Saskatchewan River, but it appears that this will be a slow process due to the large amounts of water presently stored in the Saskeram area. Water levels in the Birch River area have continued to rise in recent days.

The level of Red Deer Lake changed little since yesterday morning in part due to decreased north winds. The present level is just 0.3 feet below the crest of early May. Little further rise is expected on the Lake unless additional heavy rain develops in the next few days.

Levels if the Carrot River and the Saskatchewan River are falling slowly but remain quite high.

The level of the Red River in downtown Winnipeg was 9.7 feet this morning, which is 1.2 higher than the lowest walkways at the Forks. A crest of 10 feet is expected during the next few days. The River should decline back to 8.5 feet in less than two weeks based on little additional rain.

There has been little additional rain in the Whiteshell and Nopiming Provincial Park since yesterday morning as thunderstorms had moved into Northwestern Ontario. Levels of small streams in the area which received a 90 mm downpour Monday evening are subsiding but larger streams such as the Bird River will continue to rise for another day or two.

The rainfall in northwestern Ontario during the past few days was good news for the Winnipeg River system which has been in the grips of a drought since last year. Levels and flows should rise somewhat but more rain is badly needed. This the first year in many decades where April-May flow volumes on the Red River have exceeded those on the Winnipeg River, with the possible exception of 1997.

The chance of overland flooding in other areas of southeastern Manitoba and the Red River Valley is now very low as heavy rain is no longer expected from the present storm system.