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Manitoba Water Stewardship
Province of Manitoba » Water Stewardship » Surface Water Information » Forecasts for Rivers, Lakes and Reservoirs » Spring Flood Outlook for Southern Manitoba - February 26, 2007

Surface Water Information
Flood Forecasting Reports

Flood Report for Manitoba

June 15th, 2007

Table of Contents:

Weather

Rainfall of 25-40 mm has fallen in portions of the upper Assiniboine River east of Yorkton and across the Shellmouth Reservoir area and Shell River watershed. Areas from Russell south to Brandon received 10-20 mm. The Roblin area has received over 60 mm of rain in the past two days. Portions of the Red River watershed in Minnesota, which had been hit by up to 150 mm or rain earlier this week, received an additional 25-50 mm of rain during the 24 hour period ending this morning.

Weather forecasts from both Canada and the United States weather agencies indicate that another storm is likely to bring potentially heavy rain to much of southern Manitoba and adjacent portions of the U.S. Sunday evening through Monday.

A HIGH WATER LEVEL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WHITESHELL AND NOPIMING PROVINCIAL PARKS

HIGH WATER LEVEL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ASSINIBOINE RIVER FROM SHELLMOUTH TO MILLWOOD.

A HIGH WATER LEVEL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE RED RIVER.

 

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Assiniboine River , Nopiming & Whiteshell Provincial Parks, Red River Watershed, etc.

Eastern Manitoba:

A high water advisory remains in effect for Whiteshell and Nopiming Parks. The level of Bird Lake is declining very slowly. The lake is still nearly a quarter foot higher than at the crest in 1974, making this a record high level. Additional rises in the level of Bird Lake area unlikely but cannot be ruled out if the wet spell continues.

Lakes in the Whiteshell are well above desirable levels, except those on the Winnipeg River which are near normal levels. The high levels are flooding docks and beaches but so far damages appear minimal. Logs have been removed from most dams in the Whiteshell. The dam at West Hawk Lake has not been opened due to high levels on Caddy Lake into which it empties. Problems due to high lake levels could persist of worsen if the current wet spell continues.

Lake Of The Woods still remains below its average level for this time of year.

Red River Watershed:

The U.S. National Weather Service has increased its projected crests for U.S. points of the Red River due to additional precipitation in the past 24 hours.

Predicted crests for the Manitoba portion now indicate the possibility of minor overbank flows in the St. Jean area and levels could reach to near bankfull at some other locations from Emerson to St. Adolphe. The crest is now expected to occur during late June of early July depending on location.

The Red River rose 0.3 to 0.4 feet between Drayton, N.D.  and the Red River Floodway Inlet during the 24 hour period ending this morning. However larger rises are developing in the area from Grand Forks southward and these will gradually spread northward.

The river level in downtown Winnipeg this morning was 11 feet and is expected to crest between 13.5 and 14.5 feet based on normal weather conditions from now on. The normal summer level is 6.3 feet.

Predicted crests for the Manitoba portion may need to be revised up further if widespread heavy rain develops Sunday to Monday.

A flood sheet for the Red River is attached.

Assiniboine River:

A high water level advisory continues for the Assiniboine River from Shellmouth Dam to Millwood. There has been little change in the water level and outflow at Shellmouth Reservoir since yesterday. The substantial rain in the Reservoir area and the Shell River basin is increasing inflows from these areas but this is being compensated by reduced flows at Kamsack. Since rainfall was lesser upstream of Kamsack, it is possible that total inflows to Shellmouth Reservoir may not rise significantly due to the rain. Levels of the Reservoir and on the Assiniboine River from Shellmouth to Millwood should remain fairly steady unless significant additional rain develops. At present it appears that Sunday’s rain may pass south of the Reservoir.

The Shellmouth Reservoir water level increased slightly to 1410.79 feet with a spillway flow to 2190 cfs. There has been no flow through the conduit since 10 a.m. June 7. The reservoir inflow has declined slightly to 1950 cfs this morning.

A flood sheet for the Assiniboine River is attached.

Northwest:

Rainfall of 50-60 mm occurred in the Duck Mountain area during the 24 hour period ending this morning. Streams in the area are rising significantly and some localized flooding may occur during the next few days.

Lake Winnipegosis received additional rain and may have risen to the highest level recorded since the mid 1950’s. The exact level is unknown due to wind conditions. Shoreline flooding is likely to occur in low areas if strong winds develop.

The level of Red Deer Lake remains very high but continues to decline.

Water levels remain very high in the Saskeram area west-northwest of The Pas. While no homes are flooded, there are continued difficulties with cattle due to flooded pastures.

 

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Attachments

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