Condition Reports

Spring Runoff and River Conditions

April 8, 2008

An updated forecast for the Red River for the spring of 2008 is attached. It shows the predicted peak stages and approximate dates for this spring’s snowmelt runoff.

Most of the snow in the Red River watershed has now melted and a minor spring runoff is now underway. Runoff and peak flows are likely to be well below those of last spring and flooding is not expected. Minor crests are likely to occur as early as next week.

The spring flood potential has decreased from March 20, 2008 when the last flood outlook was issued. This is due to below average precipitation over most of the watershed, including the Assiniboine River, since that time and due to a gradual melt with strong sublimation losses. Some risk of ice jamming remains in areas from Selkirk to Lake Winnipeg, but it now appears that river flows will be too low to cause serious ice jams. Ice breaking in sensitive areas has further reduced the risk.

Headwater portions of the watershed northeast and west of Fargo received up to 20 inches (50 cm) of snow last weekend. This precipitation is expected to have little effect on peak flows in Manitoba due to its southerly location. Another storm system is expected to bring rain and snow to the United States portion this Thursday to Saturday.  If precipitation amounts exceed 20 mm in most areas, the attached forecast may need to be revised upward somewhat.

An update will be provided on April 10, 2008

Hydrologic Forecast Centre
Regulatory and Operational Services,
Manitoba Water Stewardship