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A much needed rain of 15-25 mm fell over most of southern Manitoba last Monday, May 12, 2008. However little rain fell west and north of a line through Deloraine, Virden, Rivers and Gimli. The rainfall soaked into dry soils and produced very little runoff. Little or no rainfall is expected for the next five days.
Flows are close to average on these rivers as of mid May.
Flows on the Assiniboine River are declining quite rapidly due to lack of rainfall. However conditions are ideal on Shellmouth Reservoir and this will enable continued releases to keep river flows in the desirable range this summer. An updated information sheet for the Assiniboine River is attached.
Flows are presently below average on these and other streams in southwestern Manitoba.
Flows on the Souris River are increasing due to recent releases from the J. Clarke Salyer Refuge in North Dakota and are expected to be near normal this summer unless drought criteria are invoked. The International Souris River Board will meet June 20, 2008 to discuss this and other issues. If the total storage in reservoirs in North Dakota and Saskatchewan is below a designated value, then drought criteria come into play and operations may differ from the normal practice in order to conserve water.
Flows on the Manitoba portion of the Churchill River are expected to rise significantly from now to late June due to above average runoff in the Saskatchewan portion and high releases from Reindeer Lake. However crests in Manitoba, based on average rainfall from now through June, are expected to be much lower than those of the autumn flood of 2005. Crests in the Pukatawagan should be four to five feet lower and in the Leaf Rapids area six to seven feet lower than the crests of 2005. No flooding is expected unless much above average rainfall develops.
Flows in these rivers continue to be much above average, primarily due to the effect of high levels on Lake Winnipegosis resulting from the high runoff from 2005 to 2007. Flows are expected to decrease significantly during the rest of 2008 based on average precipitation, especially those in the Waterhen River.
Note: Weekly updates of river flows in table and chart format are available for viewing on our web site at:
http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/index.html
Updates are usually posted on Friday afternoon.
Hydrologic Forecast Centre
Regulatory and Operational Services,
Manitoba
Water Stewardship