Manitoba Occupational Forecasts

Manitoba’s labour market conditions are unique, its economy is vibrant, and is strongly positioned to embrace the opportunities and tackle the challenges of the labour market of the future.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2018 to 2024 (PDF) identifies expected trends for the labour market based on an occupation forecasting model that projects labour market demand and supply for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) level.

The purpose of the report is to increase understanding of the state of the Manitoba labour market and the key issues involved in achieving its future labour market goals. The forecasts presented in the report are intended to facilitate workforce planning by government and stakeholders, and to promote awareness and discussion about the state of the labour markets and implications for industry and government initiatives.


Executive Summary Click arrow to open

The Manitoba economy will see a total of 168,700 job openings between 2018 and 2024, with 66 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 24,100 total job openings per year.

Manitoba’s economy will see 168,400 new workers join the labour force between 2018 and 2024, or approximately 24,100 workers a year.

Manitoba’s unemployment rate is expected to remain constant at 5.3 per cent both in 2018 and 2024.

After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.7 per cent annually from 2018 to 2024.

Manitoba’s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.3 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.6 per cent annually.

Total Labour Demand Click arrow to open

A total of 168,700 job openings will be created between 2018 and 2024.

Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 58,000 job openings (34 per cent of the total). Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 110,700 job openings (66 per cent of the total).

The occupation group with the most expected job openings is sales and service at 33,300 or 19.7 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook.

Job openings in business, finance and administration occupations are estimated at 26,400 or 15.7 per cent; and occupations in education, law and social, community and government services at 23,600 or 14.0 per cent.

Within the sales and service occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations.

For all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. However, in occupations in Health and Sales and Service, expansion demand almost equals replacement demand.

With regard to educational requirements, of the 168,700 forecasted job openings over the seven-year period, approximately 60 per cent are forecasted to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification). The remaining 40 per cent may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements.

Total Labour Supply Click arrow to open

It is forecasted that there will be an additional 168,400 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand.

The additional supply is forecasted to consist of 92,600 new entrants, 38,600 net in-migrants and 37,200 net other in-mobility workers.

With 168,400 workers joining the labour force and 110,700 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 57,700 persons over the forecast period.

Gaps in Demand versus Supply Click arrow to open

Overall, Manitoba’s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province. In each year from 2017 to 2023, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 6,400 workers.

Over the forecast period, total labour supply growth will outpace total labour demand growth by 200 workers. The unemployment rate is expected remain fairly consistent over the forecast period. Overall, the unemployment rate is forecasted to decline from 5.3 per cent in 2018 to 5.2 per cent over the next 5 years, before rising to 5.3 per cent again in 2024.

Why do the numbers change? Click arrow to open

As the economy changes, the macro-economic assumptions and data underlying this report are updated regularly with the best data available at the time. For example, economic changes like the oil-price decrease of 2014/15 and ongoing, weaker than expected domestic economic performance, have widespread implications for the labour market in Manitoba, Canada and around the world. In this latest iteration, the model has also been updated to reflect results of Census 2016.

In addition, with every update of the report, it covers a new seven-year period. As a result, direct comparison of the labour supply and demand forecasts year-over-year is not advised.

Please see Chapter 3 and Appendix 1 for more on the methodology and macro-economic assumptions behind this report.

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