Developing a GHG Emissions Inventory and Forecast

A baseline inventory documents and measures the sources and levels of GHG emissions in a community for a given year (the baseline year). The forecast projects where those levels will be another year into the future (the target year), should the community continue to operate business-as-usual. The community then sets a reduction target. This is usually expressed as a percentage below the levels of the baseline year by the target year, ex. 6% below 2003 levels by 2012.

A municipal inventory consists of two parts:

• A corporate inventory that looks at buildings, street lighting, water and wastewater treatment, municipal fleet and corporate solid waste under the control of the municipality.
• A community inventory that looks at residential, institutional, commercial, and industrial energy use, transportation practices and waste in the broader community.

A neighbourhood inventory is a smaller-scaled version of the community inventory and measures transportation, waste, energy and lawn care choices of local residents, businesses and institutions.

The inventory and forecast help to determine:

• the amount of energy being used and the subsequent GHGs emitted, by source and sector
• how this is changing over time (the impact of projected population growth/decline on emissions)
• where there is potential to reduce emissions
• priority projects or activities based on their reduction potential and rate-of-return on investment
• possible socio-economic costs of those reductions
• the impact of the reductions relative to a business-as-usual scenario

This information will provide a foundation for a plan to reduce emissions and a benchmark for measuring progress.

Resources

ICLEI spreadsheet is a tool for municipalities to track their emissions in any given year. It is endorsed by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities and used in Milestone One of the Partners for Climate Protection program.

Guide for Conducting Municipal GHG Emissions Inventories and Forecasts in Manitoba is based on Manitoba municipal experience and provides tips, resources and valuable information for how to conduct a baseline inventory and forecast in Manitoba using the ICLEI spreadsheet.

GreenRegistry.org – this website provides calculators for individuals, businesses and community institutions to measure their emissions.