Manitoba Drought Monitor

The information below highlights the drought management efforts currently underway in Manitoba. The Manitoba Drought Management Strategy provides an overarching framework and action strategies for an integrated approach to minimize the impacts of impacts of drought. Up to date information on water availability and drought conditions is accessible below, while our suite of drought indicators can be viewed interactively on the Drought Indicator Map.

In 2021, we are currently experiencing extreme drought conditions throughout much of southern Manitoba. For up to date information on current drought resources and programming, please visit the Resources & Programming tab below.

If you are an agricultural producer looking for resources on managing dry conditions, click here.

If you are being impacted by drought conditions and require assistance, please contact drought@gov.mb.ca to be connected to resources and support from across government.

Manitoba Drought Management Strategy

The Manitoba Drought Management Strategy provides a framework for an integrated approach to managing drought, with the goal of minimizing the environmental, social and economic impacts of drought on Manitoba’s residents, economy and environmental resources.

The Manitoba Drought Management Strategy provides a history and overview of drought on the Canadian Prairies, defines science-based indicators to characterize drought conditions, and outlines strategies to improve communication, coordination, and response to drought and increase Manitoba’s drought preparedness. Please refer to the strategy for more details.

Drought Management Strategy thuumbnail
Drought Management Strategy (pdf)
Conditions Reports

This Water Availability and Drought Conditions Report provides an update on conditions throughout Manitoba for September 2021. Although drought conditions have improved slightly in some areas, above normal rainfall prior to freeze-up and throughout the winter is needed to fully alleviate the extensive dryness.

  • Precipitation conditions over the past month, three month, and twelve month periods are as follows:
    • During September, most of agri-Manitoba experienced severely (40 – 60 % of median) to extremely (<40 %) dry precipitation conditions with some pockets of normal (85 – 115 %) precipitation. In northern Manitoba, conditions ranged from moderately dry (60 – 85 %) in the south to above normal (>115 %) in the north.
    • Over the past three months (July, August, September), most of agri-Manitoba and northern Manitoba experienced normal to moderately dry conditions.
    • Over the past 12 months, agri-Manitoba experienced moderately to severely dry conditions. Conditions in northern Manitoba ranged from moderately dry to normal.
  • As of September 30, 2021, flows and levels across southern Manitoba generally ranged from much below normal (<10th percentile) to normal (25 – 75th percentile). Flows and levels in northern Manitoba generally ranged from below normal (10th – 25th percentile) to above normal (75th – 90th percentile).
  • As of the end of September, the groundwater levels on the Sandilands, Oak Lake, Assiniboine Delta, Winkler and Glenora aquifers and the carbonate aquifer at Selkirk were normal to above normal. Levels at Piney, Steinbach, Anola and Poplarfield were in the below normal to much below normal range. Local conditions may vary from monitoring and shallow aquifers with limited extent may experience water levels declining below the pump and report as dry or intermittently dry during pumping cycles. Shallow sand aquifers of limited extent and water storage may not be able to meet current water requirements. Demand for new well drilling is high; a listing of currently licensed water well drillers is available here.
  • As of the end of September, the groundwater levels on the Sandilands, Oak Lake, Assiniboine Delta, Winkler and Glenora aquifers and the carbonate aquifer at Selkirk were normal to above normal. Levels at Piney, Steinbach, Anola and Poplarfield were in the below normal to much below normal range. Local conditions may vary from monitoring and shallow aquifers with limited extent may experience water levels declining below the pump and report as dry or intermittently dry during pumping cycles. Shallow sand aquifers of limited extent and water storage may not be able to meet current water requirements. Demand for new well drilling is high; a listing of currently licensed water well drillers is available
  • The September 30, 2021 Canadian Drought Monitor assessment showed a slight improvement in conditions in parts of southern Manitoba. However, drought conditions continued to persist with much of agri-Manitoba still classified as D3 (extreme drought) or D4 (exceptional drought). Drought conditions extended northward, with a region of D2 (severe drought) surrounding Thompson and D0 (abnormally dry) conditions surrounding Churchill.
  • Most provincial water supply reservoirs remain above 70 % of full supply level, except for Lake Minnewasta, Stephenfield Reservoir and Jackson Lake. Provincial water control structures continue to be operated to mitigate low water level conditions and balance the impacts on multiple stakeholders. Some municipalities continued implementing water conservation restrictions (either voluntary or mandatory) during September, including the Pembina Valley Water Co-op and its member municipalities.
  • Soils remain dry to very dry in the top 30 cm, resulting in thick dust where harvest and fieldwork is occurring and high fire risk.
  • Sufficient livestock water supply remains a concern. Livestock producers who have been affected by dry conditions on pasture in Manitoba can apply for funding to support water source development under Ag Action Manitoba (BMP 503). Applications are no longer being accepted for 2021. However, the 2022 intake will open on November 8, 2021 and cover eligible expenses from April 1, 2022.
  • There is currently a severe shortage of forage throughout the province. More cereal crops are being cut for greenfeed (farmers must contact MASC prior to putting crops to alternate use). The Manitoba Hay Listing Service is active; producers with extra feed or looking for feed are encouraged to list their available supplies for sale. See the Manitoba ARD Dry Conditions & Drought page for resources on managing livestock, forage, and crops during drought; including available financial assistance such as the recently announced Agri-Recovery programming.
  • The Manitoba Farm, Rural & Northern Support Services hotline is available 24/7 for farmers and ranchers dealing with crises and stressful situations at 1-866-367-3276.
  • As of October 4, 2021, wildfire danger was moderate to extreme across Manitoba. Manitoba Wildfire Service reported 453 wildfires this year to date, burning a total area of 1,264,978 hectares. There are no active provincial fire or travel restrictions in place at this time.

Water Availability & Drought Conditions

The Surface Water Management Section of Agriculture provides updates on water availability and drought conditions. Please see below to access the most recent and historical reports.

Reservoir Conditions Summary Table:

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Drought Indicator Map

View a full-screen version of the map

All drought conditions maps will be updated regularly throughout the open water season. During the winter months, only the Canadian and U.S. Drought Monitor map will continue to be updated on a monthly basis.

Drought Impacts

History of drought on the Canadian Prairies

In the last 100 years, geographically extensive, multi-year droughts with severe impacts were observed in the 1930s, 1960s, 1980s, and most recently in the early 2000s. In fact, according to the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction's Canadians at Risk report (2010)1, droughts are responsible for five out of the top ten most expensive Canadian natural disasters on record.

1 Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR). 2010. Canadians at Risk: Our exposure to natural hazards.

Drought in the 1800s

Although not as well documented as the droughts of the 1900s, there were also many severe droughts that occurred in the 1800s. The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, 2010)1 lists impacts such as scorched potato crops in the Red River Valley in 1805, continuous drought and hordes of grasshoppers across the prairies from 1816 to 1819, complete failure on the 1846 crop in the Red River Valley, crop failures and grasshopper plague in 1868, and nine years of continuous drought across the prairies in the 1890s.

1 Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR). 2010. Canadians at Risk: Our exposure to natural hazards.

1930s Drought - The Dirty Thirties

Although droughts in the latter half of the 19th century may have been more severe in some areas, the drought of the 1930s was the drought with the largest impact on Manitoba and the Canadian Prairies. The drought set in during 1929 and prevailed through to the early 1940s. The drought of the 1930s was made famous by massive dust storms which earned the decade the nickname "the dirty thirties". The multi-year severe drought, combined with the 1929 stock market crash, led to devastating socioeconomic conditions on the prairies. Blowing dust and significantly reduced crop production occurred from the early 1930s to 1939. By the mid-1930s the drought was set in across the North American prairies, including across the Canadian Prairies and south all the way to Texas in the U.S.A. Poor soil conservation and farming practices contributed to the soil conditions that allowed the dust storms to reach extraordinary proportions. Crop disease and grasshopper infestations added to the agricultural devastation. With low prices for cattle and lack of feed, conditions forced producers to reduce cattle herds by selling at low prices, or in some cases, culling portions of their herd with no return. The 1936 census indicates that 500 farms were abandoned in Manitoba (Dean et al., 1998)2. Lack of social programs and crop insurance combined with the poor economic conditions exacerbated many socioeconomic drought impacts. The dust and lack of water also caused health impacts on people, livestock, and wildlife. "Dust pneumonia" and other respiratory illnesses caused many deaths. Failed crops and economic instability of farming operations created severe mental stress for farming families which led to increased suicide rates. Drought conditions finally began to ease in the early 1940s. The Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (PFRA) was established in 1935 by the Federal Government of Canada as a Branch of Agriculture and Agri-food Canada. PFRA's mandate was to mitigate and recover from the drought by delivering various programs on soil erosion and on-farm water supply to support famers and agricultural industries.


Drifted soil near Cadillac, Saskatchewan, 1937

2 Dean, William G.; Conrad Heidenreich; and Thomas McIlwraith. 1998. Concise Historical Atlas of Canada. University of Toronto Press.

Early 1960s Drought

The drought of the early 1960s was not as long in duration as the drought of the 1930s but was one of the most severe droughts on record. In June 1961 there were record low rainfall accumulations coinciding with record mean monthly temperature and bright sunshine hours. Conditions led to wide scale crop failures and famers selling off cattle due to lack of feed and water. Drought conditions in many locations were worse than conditions in the 1930s. Dust storms were prevalent reminding people of the great dust bowl of the 1930s. Although moderate droughts were reported throughout the 1960s, widespread severe drought was limited to 1961.

Drought of the late 1980s

The return of widespread severe drought occurred in the 1980s. The drought had significant economic impacts in Manitoba. The drought peaked in severity in 1988 causing agricultural production in Manitoba to reduce to 60% of average. There was also an $80 million dollar loss in hydro power exports in 1989 (Simard and Joyce, 2005)3. Loss of wetland habitat and increase incidence of disease had a negative impact on waterfowl populations and associated recreation opportunities. Despite the severity of impacts, conditions could have been worse if drought preparedness had not been improved since the 1930s. Lessons on soil conservation had been learned from the 1930s and measures such as new tillage techniques, and treed shelter belts greatly reduced the potential for wind erosion of soils. Crop insurance and government subsidies were helpful to reduce socioeconomic impacts.


1988 drought, near Pipestone (TWP 6-RGE 26), Manitoba, June, 1988 (Courtesy: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada).

3 Simard, T.J., and J. R. Joyce. 2005. Manitoba Hydro: 2002-2004 Drought Risk Management Review.
 (https://www.hydro.mb.ca/regulatory_affairs/electric/gra_08_09/information_requests/Appendix_43-Report_on_2002-2004_Drought.pdf).

Drought from 1999 to 2004

The drought that occurred from 1999 to the mid-2000s was a severe multiyear drought that covered a large portion of the Canadian Prairies. It is the drought of record in some areas of Alberta. The drought had impacts across the prairies on agriculture, tourism, health, hydro power generation, and forestry. The Canadian gross domestic product lost $5.8 billion dollars for 2001 and 2002 due to the drought and more than 41,000 jobs were lost (Lawford et al., 2008)4. There was a $3.6 billion dollar reduction in agricultural production in the 2001/2002 fiscal year (Lawford et al., 2008)4. The drought also led to a dramatic increase in forest fires and numerous massive dust storms were reported. In fiscal year 2003/04, Manitoba Hydro incurred the largest financial loss in its history of $436 million due to reduced flow in its system (Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board, 2004)5.


Spilt Lake, Nelson River Basin, June, 2003 (Courtesy: Manitoba Hydro).

4 Lawford, Rick, Harvey Hill, Elaine Wheaton, Irene Hanuta, Alf Warkentin and Bill Girling. 2008. User Expectations for the Drought Research Initiative (DRI).
  Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Bulletin. Vol. 36, No 3.
5 Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board. 2004. Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board 53rd Annual Report.

Recent Droughts

Drought conditions quickly developed across Manitoba in 2012 after widespread flooding that occurred in 2011. Although short in duration, drought impacts were already noticeable as pasture productivity was reduced and many dugout supplies were inadequate for livestock operations. Wildfires broke out in May near the communities of Badger and Vita leading to the declaration of local states of emergency. In October more wildfires occurred in southeast Manitoba and the Interlake. In the October fires two states of local emergency were declared, approximately 270 people were evacuated including the communities of Vita and Ross, and 14 homes or farm operations were damaged.

In 2015 drought conditions, warm temperatures and increased winds resulted in extreme wildland fire risk across western Canada. The number of fires per day significantly increased by the end of June, and the fire situation continued to escalate through most of July. Saskatchewan incurred the largest burned area, followed by the Northwest Territories and Alberta. Thousands were forced to evacuate their homes, and the number of Canadian agencies impacted by wildland fire activity during this period resulted in unprecedented international aid and mutual aid cooperation (CIFFC, 2015)6. In Manitoba, northwesterly winds blanketed large regions of the province with thick smoke, reducing visibility and air quality. This reduction in air quality placed residents, particularly children, seniors, pregnant women, and people with heart or lung conditions, at increased risk of health issues from breathing in smoky air.

In 2016, a major wildland fire impacted Fort McMurray and surrounding communities, evacuating 88,000 people and burning 2,400 buildings. This event was Canada's fourth largest fire on record, and became the most expensive natural disaster in Canadian history (NRC, 2017)7.

2017 brought moderate drought conditions to Manitoba after an early spring freshet resulted in above normal streamflow conditions across most of southern and northern Manitoba. However, after months of below average precipitation during the growing season, by July and into August almost all of Manitoba was experiencing moderate to severe precipitation conditions. Due to warm temperatures, dry conditions and high winds, August brought a significant increase in wildfire activity relative to previous months, resulting in serval fires causing the evacuation of thousands of residents from numerous northern communities. Although the drought conditions experienced over the 2017 growing season generally did not have an unfavourable impact to crop yields, there was a reduction in pasture productivity and concerns about on-farm water supplies going into the winter season.


Canadian wildfires produce river of smoke, June 29th, 2015.
(Image from NASA Earth Observatory: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86151)

6CIFFC: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. 2015. Canada Report 2015

7NRC: Natural Resources Canada. 2017. Infographic: Fort McMurray fire at a glance

Historic Drought

Tree ring analysis provides insight about the climate on the prairies prior to human observations started in the early 19th century. Tree rings research provides data that demonstrate the occurrence of wet and dry cycles in prairie rivers for the last 1000 years. A clear multidecadal cycle between wet and dry cycles exists. Tree rings in the Upper Assiniboine River Watershed provide evidence that the most severe drought on record occurred in the latter half of the 16th century. This drought appears more severe, and much longer, than the drought of the 1930s. Tree rings form the Red River Basin show that the Red River was also in a severe multi-decade drought in the mid- to late-1500s. It is difficult to comprehend the catastrophe that would occur if Manitoba and the rest of the Canadian Prairies were to experience such a severe, multi-decade drought today. It would be the greatest natural disaster the Canadian Prairies has ever experienced.

Future Drought

The history of drought in Manitoba and the rest of the Canadian Prairies demonstrates that the impacts of drought can be extreme and can have consequences from a local to national scale. The historical cycle of wet and dry periods assures that the return of severe drought to Manitoba and the Canadian Prairies is inevitable in the coming decades. Severe multiyear droughts have occurred frequently in each century for the last number of centuries.

The droughts throughout the 20th century have proved that increased capacity (preparedness) through a variety of methods can help reduce the impacts of drought. The best way to protect Manitoba from the harsh impacts of drought is to prepare as best as possible before severe drought occurs. Manitoba Drought Management Strategy will enhance Manitoba's understanding of drought and as action items are implemented, increase Manitoba's resilience to drought.

Have you seen drought impacts on your area? Let us know! Please send us an email at drought@gov.mb.ca. Don't forget to include pictures!

Resources & Programming

Resources 

Crops & Livestock – Managing Dry Conditions

Please visit the link below for resources on managing dry conditions for crops and livestock:

The information on the above website will be continually updated as the season evolves to provide the most up to date resources as well as inform clients about upcoming webinars and MASC programs and deadlines.

Groundwater Conditions for a Potential Well

The Water Branch can provide information on your current well if available, and what the expectations might be for constructing a new well. Email your contact information, the legal land location and the information you are looking for (existing well information or groundwater potential) to Manitoba Groundwater: Drought. Feedback provided may include aquifer depths, potential pumping rate, and if available the water quality in the area. A listing of Licensed Well Drilling Contractors is also available.

Additional Resources

Some links to other helpful resources are included below.


Programming

Now accepting applications for Managing Livestock Access to Riparian Areas beneficial management practice (BMP 503) under Ag Action Manitoba – Assurance. Eligible items include:

  • water source development – constructing new or rehabilitating existing wells or dugouts;
  • solar, wind or grid-powered alternative watering systems;
  • permanent fencing to restrict livestock access to surface water and dugouts; and
  • permanent pipeline development.

Applications are now being accepted and will be reviewed on an ongoing basis until October 1, 2021. Any projects for water source development occurring after April 1, 2021 are eligible. Upon project completion, applicants must submit proof of a valid Environmental Farm Plan (EFP) with their claim (see www.ManitobaEFP.ca for more information).

Additional Programming

Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation (MASC)

Drought Preparedness

Being prepared for the onset of drought is the most desirable and proactive means to manage drought.

One of the action items in the Manitoba Drought Management Strategy is to conduct drought preparedness assessments at the sub-basin scale to evaluate how prepared various sectors (eg. water supply, agriculture, the environment, the economy, community health, etc.) are for future droughts. Conducting these assessments allows government and stakeholders to inventory and understand past drought impacts, current vulnerabilities, and make preparations to mitigate future impacts.

Over the next five to ten years, drought preparedness will be assessed for sub-basins across Manitoba. A promising mechanism to collect the required information to assess drought preparedness is the consideration of drought within the integrated watershed management planning process. Integrated watershed management planning is a collaborative effort between government, watershed residents and stakeholders in which a long-term plan is created to manage water, land and other resources for a particular watershed.

The culmination of each drought preparedness assessment is a suggestion of sector-specific preparedness levels (none, low, medium and high) for each sub-basin. In the future, these preparedness levels alongside real-time drought indicator information will be used to operationally monitor drought stage across Manitoba and determine the required response at various levels of government. As drought preparedness assessments are completed, they will become publically available on this webpage.

Contacts

Links to more information:

Manitoba Agri-Maps

Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization

Manitoba Wildfire Program

A Made-in-Manitoba Climate and Green Plan

Water Survey of Canada

Environment and Climate Change Canada Historical Climate Data

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada - Drought Watch

U.S. Drought Monitor

National Drought Mitigation Center (USA)


Contact Us

Have you seen drought impacts on your area? Let us know! Please send us an email at drought@gov.mb.ca. Don't forget to include pictures!

Mail:
Water Science & Watershed Management Branch
Box 14 - 200 Saulteaux Cres
Winnipeg, MB
R3J 3W3

Email:
Drought@gov.mb.ca