Manitoba Labour Market Outlook

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Introduction

Labour markets across Canada are experiencing significant pressures due to emerging technologies, an aging workforce, impacts of trade tariffs and increasing demand for skilled labour in sectors such as healthcare and housing. Our province has a young, diverse population and a growing economy that positions us to meet these challenges, build a skilled workforce and provide good jobs for all Manitobans.

Manitoba’s 2025 to 2029 Labour Market Outlook identifies expected trends, challenges and opportunities for the province’s labour market over a five-year period. It is based on a forecasting model that projects the number of openings in occupational categories and industries.

This outlook provides important insights into Manitoba’s labour market that will improve awareness of workforce opportunities and help Manitobans make informed decisions about career planning, training, education and hiring. It is intended to be used by:

• The Manitoba government and other levels of government
• Students, job seekers and other Manitobans looking to make training and career decisions
• Educators, employment counsellors and career development organizations
• Employers and industry associations
• Training providers and post-secondary institutions

 

Assumptions

The Labour Market Outlook is developed using a forecasting model that incorporates assumptions about future population growth, immigration and interprovincial migration. It draws on data from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and Statistics Canada and considers a range of factors including current labour market conditions, historical trends, global events and government policies.

However, it is important to recognize that all forecasting models are subject to limitations. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and relevance of the projections, the model cannot account for all possible future developments. Unforeseen events—such as economic shocks, technological disruptions, policy changes or global crises—can significantly alter labour market dynamics in ways that are difficult or impossible to predict.

As such, the Labour Market Outlook should not be viewed as a precise prediction of the future. Rather, it is intended to provide a general sense of potential trends and directions based on the best available information at the time of publication. Users are encouraged to interpret the findings with caution and to consider them alongside other sources of information, local labour market intelligence, and contextual knowledge when making decisions related to workforce planning, education training, and policy development.

Ultimately, the Labour Market Outlook is one of many tools that can support informed decision-making. It is most effective when used as part of a broader strategy that incorporates flexibility, ongoing monitoring, and responsiveness to change.

The 2025-2029 Labour Market Outlook uses data gathered in 2024 and does not capture developments after that time, including the imposition of trade tariffs by the United States and China and tariff countermeasures implemented by the Government of Canada. 

Assessing the impact of tariffs on the labour market is difficult given the uncertainty about which tariffs will be implemented, how long they will be in effect and what retaliatory measures will be implemented.

The Manitoba government will continue to actively monitor the impact of tariffs on the workforce and will provide updated labour market projections when they are available.

 

Key Assumptions and Trends

• Population Growth: Population growth remains the primary driver of Manitoba’s future labour supply. The province is expected to experience slow but steady growth over the next five years.
• Immigration: Immigration plays a vital role in supporting Manitoba’s workforce. Between July 2023 and June 2024, the province welcomed 23,600 international immigrants. This is a slight decline from the 25,600 immigrants in the previous year and 21,300 the year before that. The downward trend is expected to continue due to federal policy changes introduced in fall 2024.

 

Population Projections (2025–2029)

• International Immigration: Projected to bring approximately 102,000 new residents to Manitoba.
• Natural Increase: Expected to contribute 35,300 people.
• Net Interprovincial Migration: Anticipated to result in a net loss of 24,000 residents to other provinces and territories.
• Unemployment Rate: Manitoba’s unemployment rate is projected to remain low, averaging 5.2% over the five-year period.

 

Table 1: Projected Population and Labour Market Characteristics by Year, 2025 to 2029. Rounded to nearest 100.

Characteristic	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	Total
Population level	1,505,000	1,505,800	1,511,000	1,525,100	1,540,300	N/A
Natural increase (births/deaths)	7,200	7,100	7,100	7,000	7,000	35,400
Net in-migration1	8,000	-1,800	2,700	11,800	12,800	33,400
Immigration	21,700	19,800	18,700	20,700	21,100	102,000
Working-age population	1,167,000	1,168,400	1,173,600	1,186,900	1,200,600	N/A
Labour force	774,300	783,700	792,600	804,000	813,800	N/A
Employment	730,100	742,900	753,000	763,000	773,100	N/A
Unemployment	44,100	40,800	39,600	41,000	40,700	N/A
Unemployment rate (%)	5.7%	5.2%	5.0%	5.1%	5.0%	N/A
Participation rate (%)	66.3%	67.1%	67.5%	67.7%	67.8%	N/A

* Source: Stokes Economics, Custom Table, “January Population Forecast 2025”, 2025.

* NOC 2021, V1.

¹ Net international immigration plus net interprovincial migration. See net interprovincial migration in the Workers section.

* Immigration figures reflect policy changes implemented by Canada in fall 2024. These policies will decrease the number of international immigrants, resulting in a projected net loss of working-age individuals in 2026.

 

 

Labour Market Outlook for 2025–2029 at a Glance

For key highlights of the 2025 to 2029 Labour Market Outlook, download our "Outlook at a Glance" infographic (available in alternate formats upon request).