Manitoba Labour Market Outlook

 

Workers

 

Key Facts

  • Manitoba is projected to have 751,400 workers by 2027.
  • New entrants, immigrants and other mobility are expected to add 102,500 new workers to Manitoba’s labour market during the 2023–2027 period, while interprovincial migration, retirements and deaths are expected to result in a loss of 104,900 workers from the labour force.

 

  How is this information helpful?
This page provides information about the sources of Manitoba’s future workforce supply.

This information can help government, educational institutions and industry gain a better understanding of the components of Manitoba’s future workforce and support planning for the increase of labour supply from specific sources to address potential shortfalls in the labour market.

 

 

What are the current and future characteristics of Manitoba’s workforce?

As of 2022, Manitoba’s workforce consisted of 712,100 individuals. It is expected that by 2027, this number will increase to 751,400. This represents an increase of 39,300 workers, or 7,860 workers per year.

 

Figure 1: Year 2022 represents actual labour force. Projections period corresponds to 2023-2027

Graph showing projected Manitoba labour force levels from 2022 to 2027


Factors influencing Manitoba’s future workforce

A number of factors will influence changes in the available workforce.

Losses:

  • Interprovincial migration – Between 2023 and 2027, Manitoba is projected to lose 24,000 more workers to other provinces and territories than it is expected to gain from other Canadian jurisdictions. The top three provinces Manitoba loses population to are Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia.
  • Retirements and deaths – 80,900 workers (16,180 per year) are projected to leave the workforce due to retirement and deaths by the end of 2027.

Gains:

  • New entrants – An estimated 63,500 new entrants (12,700 per year) are projected to join Manitoba’s workforce for the first time after completing their education.
  • Immigration – International immigration will continue to be important to the growth of Manitoba’s population and workforce, with an estimated 32,000 workers joining Manitoba’s workforce over the next five years.

 

Table 1: Sources of Labour Force Change1

Sources 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total
Retirements -13,300 -13,500 -13,800 -14,000 -14,300 -68,900
Deaths -2,400 -2,400 -2,400 -2,400 -2,400 -12,000
New entrants 12,700 12,700 12,700 12,700 12,700 63,500
New international immigration 6,400 6,400 6,400 6,400 6,400 32,000
Net interprovincial immigration -4,800 -4,800 -4,800 -4,800 -4,800 -24,000
Net other mobility2 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 7,000

1 This table is based on the assumption that the five-year sources of labour force change are equally distributed over the five-year forecast.
2 Net other mobility includes individuals rejoining the workforce after a time away and those returning to work such as seasonal workers.

 

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