Labour Market Outlook Frequently Asked Questions
How many job openings are expected with the new Labour Market Outlook?
116,300 job openings are expected during the 2023-2027 forecast period.
How is the number of job openings calculated?
The number of anticipated job openings is the total of a) all jobs expected to be created by expansion demand and b) all jobs expected to be created by replacement demand:
- Expansion demand represents new jobs generated by economic growth (forecasted to create 35,400 job openings).
- Replacement demand represents new jobs created from retirements and deaths (forecasted to create 80,900 job openings).
The Labour Market Outlook indicates there is a surplus of workers expected in an occupation that I am considering, but I see lots of job openings for that occupation where I live. Why is that?
An overall surplus or shortage of labour in a specific occupation does not always mean all disciplines within that occupation have a similar surplus/shortage.
For example, if there are more psychology graduates in Manitoba than available jobs, this is considered an overall surplus of workers for that occupation.
However, because psychology graduates can work in many different occupational disciplines (e.g., clinical psychology, research, psychology instruction), some disciplines could face a shortage of workers if they cannot attract enough graduates to fill all available jobs.
Additionally, because occupational labour projections are reported at the provincial-level, your experience in your home community or region may be different.
What is new in this year’s Labour Market Outlook?
- The outlook now uses the 5-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) that was first introduced in 2021. Previously, the outlook used the 4-digit NOC.
- A glossary has been added to provide helpful definitions of labour market terms used throughout the outlook.
- A new 5-year labour gap projection has been added to the Occupations with the Highest Expected Shortages in each Major Occupation Group table in the Labour Gaps section:
What sectors are projected to have the most significant shortages?
The most significant shortages are expected for:
- Retail Salespersons (3,550)
- Nurse’s Aides (2,600)
- Registered Nurses (2,300)
- Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers (1,950)
- Retail and Wholesale Trade Managers (1,550)
- Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants (1,300)
For most occupational groups, the majority of job openings will be the result of workers leaving the workforce (replacement demand) as opposed to new jobs created by economic growth (expansion demand).
Why are the Top 10 Occupations different from last year?
The Top 10 Occupations are projected based on a number of factors that may change from year to year such as consumer trends, governmental policies, immigration, technology, and the economy.
How accurate and reliable can we expect these forecasted figures to be?
Forecasting labour market conditions is a complex process involving multiple data sources and assumptions about the future.
For example, the outlook assumes there will be steady population growth and a return to pre-pandemic immigration levels – but these assumptions could be impacted by unexpected events or changes in policies.
To ensure our forecasts are as accurate as possible, we continually assess the quality of our data sources and methodologies and publish the outlook annually so we can provide timely updates to our projections.
What data sources are used in the Labour Market Outlook?
The outlook uses data from a variety of sources that provide insights into Manitoba’s economic activity, demographics, and labour market trends including Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey and population growth data from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics.
These sources provide data about various labour market trends such as employment and unemployment levels, labour market participation, and skills and labour shortages.
