Labour Gaps
Key Facts
- The 2023-2027 Manitoba Labour Market Outlook projects that while our labour market is relatively balanced today, the number of jobs created by the province’s growing economy will outpace the available supply of workers over the five-year forecast period. This projected worker shortage is primarily the result of interprovincial migration, which is expected to see a net loss of 24,000 Manitobans to other provinces and territories over the five-year period.
- While many of these unfilled jobs will not require post-secondary education, the outlook also projects skilled worker shortages in the fields of health professions and related programs; business, management, marketing and related support services; and construction trades.
- Several occupations are expected to face labour shortages over the next five years led by retail salespersons, nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates, registered nurses, construction trades helpers and labourers and retail and wholesale trade managers.
This information can help all levels of government, educational institutions, employers and industry to make informed decisions for workforce planning and ensure training programs are aligned to the needs of the labour market. It can also provide job seekers, students and individuals considering career changes with insights into future employment opportunities.
This data is intended to provide a high-level snapshot and may not contain sufficient detail to make conclusions about specific disciplines, especially those with small surpluses or deficits. Additional labour market intelligence available to organizations or other governmental bodies at the local/regional level should also be considered when determining occupational demand.
Overview
Overall, the labour demand is expected to outpace the labour supply. This means, at the current forecasted rates, Manitoba will not have enough workers to fill all available job vacancies.
If Manitoba’s economy grows at its expected rate, this could lead to a shortage of 37,800 Manitoban workers over the forecasted five-year span, or 7,560 workers per year.
Labour Supply: The total number of existing workers who are already in jobs + new workers entering the labour market.
Labour Demand: The total of number of new job openings + existing jobs that remain filled.
Figure 1: Labour Supply Compared to Cumulative Labour Demand Over Five Years
Labour Shortages by Classification of Instructional Programs
Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) is a standardized approach that classifies instructional programs in Manitoba according to field of study.
Using the results of the occupational outlook, labour demand by CIP is calculated using a cross-tabulation between the CIP and National Occupational Classification (NOC) categories. This process allows for different occupations to consist of different educational backgrounds, thereby enhancing the accuracy of the gap analysis. For example, construction managers can have different educational backgrounds, including a specific trade, or a management degree or certificate.
This cross-tabulation of occupations to educational categories allows for a comparison with Manitoba’s enrolment and graduation data to estimate future labour gaps by CIP category. In the graphs and tables in this section, a positive gap means a shortage of workers while a negative gap means a surplus.
Educational fields with a large shortfall are not expected to produce a sufficient number of workers at current enrolment and graduation levels to meet Manitoba’s labour demand over the next five years. High-school students and job seekers may consider these fields when making career decisions, as job prospects are likely to be better than in fields that are expected to produce a surplus of graduates.
It is estimated that the greatest annual labour shortages will occur in the educational categories as illustrated in the chart below:
Figure 2: Annual Shortages by Educational Category (TEER-NOC2021)
Important note about labour gaps by educational category:
A table of projected imbalances by educational category at a general level is available for download (MS Excel File).
These projections are not meant to replace labour market intelligence available to organizations or other governmental bodies. When calculating projected labour gaps or surpluses, the model neither distinguishes between undergraduate and graduate programs nor takes into account the particular discipline within that instructional field. Data for this report comes from the results of the occupational outlook and labour demand by CIP and NOC categories. This cross-tabulation of occupations to educational categories allows for a comparison of Manitoba’s enrolment and graduation data to estimate the expected labour gap by CIP category. The instructional program data is intended to provide a high-level snapshot and is not detailed enough to make conclusions specific to a certain discipline, especially those with a small surplus or deficit.
Occupations with the Highest Expected Shortages in each Major Occupation Group
The 2023-27 Labour Market Outlook makes projections about Manitoba’s future labour market based on past trends, research and 2022 data. While efforts are made to ensure the Outlook is accurate and comprehensive, it may not capture all labour market developments or recent announcements.
For example, the Outlook does not currently reflect the anticipated increase in early childcare professional job openings that will be created to support the development of 23,000 new childcare spaces. Additionally, the forecast does not capture anticipated job growth in the healthcare sector and the Manitoba government's commitment to create 10,000 new skilled trade jobs over the next eight years.
A full table of all 500 occupations in Manitoba and their expected future demand and labour gaps is available for download (MS Excel File).
Table 1: Occupations by Annual and 5-year Worker Shortage
| NOC : Management occupations | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 60020 Retail and wholesale trade managers | 310 | 1,550 |
| 60031 Accommodation service managers | 150 | 750 |
| 70010 Construction managers | 130 | 650 |
| 70011 Home building and renovation managers | 120 | 600 |
| 00018 Senior managers - public and private sector | 60 | 300 |
| 30010 Managers in health care | 50 | 250 |
| 70020 Managers in transportation | 50 | 250 |
| 10021 Banking, credit and other investment managers | 30 | 150 |
| 40042 Commissioned officers of the Canadian Armed Forces | 30 | 150 |
| 70012 Facility operation and maintenance managers | 30 | 150 |
| NOC 1: Business, finance and administration occupations | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 11102 Financial advisors | 170 | 850 |
| 14101 Receptionists | 150 | 750 |
| 14400 Shippers and receivers | 150 | 750 |
| 14100 General office support workers | 140 | 700 |
| 14200 Accounting and related clerks | 100 | 500 |
| 13110 Administrative assistants | 80 | 400 |
| 12104 Employment insurance and revenue officers | 80 | 400 |
| 13100 Administrative officers | 70 | 350 |
| 14401 Storekeepers and partspersons | 70 | 350 |
| 14110 Survey interviewers and statistical clerks | 40 | 200 |
| NOC 2: Natural and applied sciences and related occupations | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 21300 Civil engineers | 50 | 250 |
| 22311 Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) | 40 | 200 |
| 22310 Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians | 20 | 100 |
| 22303 Construction estimators | 20 | 100 |
| 22233 Construction inspectors | 20 | 100 |
| 22212 Drafting technologists and technicians | 20 | 100 |
| 21301 Mechanical engineers | 10 | 50 |
| 22220 Computer network and web technicians | 10 | 50 |
| 22300 Civil engineering technologists and technicians | 10 | 50 |
| 21110 Biologists and related scientists | 10 | 50 |
| NOC 3: Health occupations | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 33102 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates | 520 | 2,600 |
| 31301 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses | 460 | 2,300 |
| 31102 General practitioners and family physicians | 80 | 400 |
| 32201 Massage therapists | 70 | 350 |
| 32101 Licensed practical nurses | 70 | 350 |
| 33109 Other assisting occupations in support of health services | 70 | 350 |
| 31100 Specialists in clinical and laboratory medicine | 60 | 300 |
| 33100 Dental assistants and dental laboratory assistants | 50 | 250 |
| 31202 Physiotherapists | 30 | 150 |
| 32121 Medical radiation technologists | 30 | 150 |
| NOC 4: Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 43100 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants | 260 | 1,300 |
| 41221 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers | 200 | 1,000 |
| 42201 Social and community service workers | 170 | 850 |
| 44101 Home support workers, caregivers and related occupations | 80 | 400 |
| 41220 Secondary school teachers | 70 | 350 |
| 43201 Correctional service officers | 70 | 350 |
| 43204 Operations members of the Canadian Armed Forces | 60 | 300 |
| 44100 Home child care providers | 30 | 150 |
| 41210 College and other vocational instructors | 30 | 150 |
| 41301 Therapists in counselling and related specialized therapies | 20 | 100 |
| NOC 5: Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 54100 Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness | 70 | 350 |
| 52121 Interior designers and interior decorators | 30 | 150 |
| 51122 Musicians and singers | 30 | 150 |
| 53124 Artisans and craftspersons | 20 | 100 |
| 52120 Graphic designers and illustrators | 20 | 100 |
| 52114 Announcers and other broadcasters | 20 | 100 |
| 52100 Library and public archive technicians | 10 | 50 |
| 53122 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists | 10 | 50 |
| 53120 Dancers | 10 | 50 |
| 53100 Registrars, restorers, interpreters and other occupations related to museum and art galleries | 10 | 50 |
| NOC 6: Sales and service occupations | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 64100 Retail salespersons and visual merchandisers | 710 | 3,550 |
| 65310 Light duty cleaners | 260 | 1,300 |
| 65312 Janitors, caretakers and heavy-duty cleaners | 110 | 550 |
| 63210 Hairstylists and barbers | 70 | 350 |
| 64314 Hotel front desk clerks | 70 | 350 |
| 64400 Customer services representatives - financial institutions | 70 | 350 |
| 65311 Specialized cleaners | 40 | 200 |
| 63102 Financial sales representatives | 40 | 200 |
| 65211 Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport | 30 | 150 |
| 65320 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations | 30 | 150 |
| NOC 7: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 75110 Construction trades helpers and labourers | 390 | 1,950 |
| 72310 Carpenters | 240 | 1,200 |
| 73400 Heavy equipment operators | 190 | 950 |
| 73300 Transport truck drivers | 190 | 950 |
| 72410 Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers | 180 | 900 |
| 72021 Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews | 110 | 550 |
| 73201 General building maintenance workers and building superintendents | 100 | 500 |
| 72200 Electricians (except industrial and power system) | 90 | 450 |
| 75101 Material handlers | 70 | 350 |
| 73311 Railway conductors and brakemen/women | 60 | 300 |
| NOC 8: Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 83100 Underground production and development miners | 40 | 200 |
| 82020 Supervisors, mining and quarrying | 20 | 100 |
| 85121 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers | 10 | 50 |
| 83101 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers | 10 | 50 |
| 84100 Underground mine service and support workers | 10 | 50 |
| 85110 Mine labourers | 10 | 50 |
| 82021 Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services | 10 | 50 |
| 85111 Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers | 10 | 50 |
| 84101 Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators | 10 | 50 |
| NOC 9: Occupations in manufacturing and utilities | Annual Gap | 5-Year Gap (2023-2027) |
| 95106 Labourers in food and beverage processing | 120 | 600 |
| 94210 Furniture and fixture assemblers, finishers, refinishers and inspectors | 80 | 400 |
| 93101 Central control and process operators, petroleum, gas and chemical processing | 80 | 400 |
| 94204 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors | 40 | 200 |
| 95109 Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities | 40 | 200 |
| 94132 Industrial sewing machine operators | 40 | 200 |
| 94200 Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers | 40 | 200 |
| 92100 Power engineers and power systems operators | 30 | 150 |
| 94140 Process control and machine operators, food and beverage processing | 30 | 150 |
| 94101 Foundry workers | 20 | 100 |
