Introduction
Manitoba's unique labour market strengths and vibrant economy strongly position the province to capitalize on growth opportunities and tackle future labour market challenges.
Manitoba’s 2023–2027 Labour Market Outlook identifies expected trends for the province’s labour market for a five-year period. It is based on an occupation forecasting model that projects the number of openings in individual jobs and industry sectors along with the number of workers available to fill those jobs. Labour gap projections are provided at the occupation, industry and educational program level to help Manitobans plan for the future.
The purpose of this outlook is to provide important insights into the state of Manitoba’s labour market to improve awareness of workforce opportunities and help Manitobans make informed decisions about career planning, training, education and hiring. It is intended to be used by:
- Manitoba government and other levels of government
- Students, jobs seekers and other Manitobans looking to make training and career decisions
- Educators, employment counsellors and career development organizations
- Employers and industry associations
- Training providers and post-secondary institutions
Assumptions
The Labour Market Outlook utilizes a labour market projection model that includes assumptions about future population growth, immigration and interprovincial migration. It draws population and immigration data from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and Statistics Canada.
- Population growth is the main driver supplying Manitoba with the workers needed to fill future jobs. Manitoba is expected to experience slow and steady population growth over the next five years. The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics projects Manitoba’s population to grow by approximately 69,500 residents over the five-year period, or an average of 13,900 per year.
- Immigration is a significant contributor to Manitoba’s workforce growth. In 2022, Manitoba welcomed 21,626 international immigrants, reaching the highest levels in the last decade. This was higher than the 8,628 welcomed in 2020 and 16,575 in 2021.
- Over the five-year period, immigration is projected to bring 82,900 new residents to the province, while the population is expected to see a natural increase of 35,400. Net interprovincial migration is expected to result in a loss of 24,000 residents to other provinces and territories.
- Manitoba’s unemployment rate will remain low at an average of 4.7% through the next five years.
The 2023-27 Labour Market Outlook makes projections about Manitoba’s future labour market based on past trends, research and 2022 data. While efforts are made to ensure the Outlook is accurate and comprehensive, it may not capture all labour market developments or recent announcements.
For example, the Outlook does not currently reflect the anticipated increase in early childcare professional job openings that will be created to support the development of 23,000 new childcare spaces. Additionally, the forecast does not capture anticipated job growth in the healthcare sector and the Manitoba government's commitment to create 10,000 new skilled trade jobs over the next eight years.
Table 1: Population and Labour Market Projections by Year
| Labour force | 726,900 | 733,500 | 739,500 | 745,400 | 751,400 | n/a |
Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Custom Table, “Population Growth Projections”, 2022.
1 Net international immigration plus net interprovincial migration. See net-interprovincial migration in Workers section.
Labour Market Outlook for 2023–2027 at a Glance
For key highlights of the 2023–2027 Labour Market Outlook, download our complete "Outlook at a Glance" infographic (available in alternate formats upon request).
1 Jobs from retirements and deaths.
2 Includes new entrants, net international immigrants, net other mobility and the interprovincial migration differential.
This section provides the distribution of job openings by educational requirements for the 2023-2027 forecast period. Educational requirements refer to the type or amount of training, education, experience and responsibility typically required to work in an occupation1.
Figure 1: Distribution of Job Openings by Educational Requirements
1 Statistics Canada, “Introduction to the National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021 Version 1.0”, Statistics Canada, November 25, 2022.
Table 2: Distribution of Job Openings by Educational Requirements
| Educational Requirements | |
| Short work demonstration and no formal educational requirements | 11% |
Figure 2: Job Openings by Economic Regions in Manitoba
Table 3: Total Job Openings by Economic Region for Five-year Forecast Period
| Region | |||
South Central |
|||
| Parklands and North | -180 | 3,680 | 3,500 |
Note: The total number of job openings identified in this table varies from the overall provincial total due to some differences in the data available at a regional level and rounding of numbers.
These are the main sources influencing the number of workers that enter and exit the Manitoba workforce.
Table 4: Total Labour Force by Source for Five-year Period
| Retirement | -68,900 |
1 High school and university graduates entering the workforce.
2 Total number of international immigrants to Manitoba less people leaving Manitoba to live abroad.
3 People entering the labour force from other sources, for example seasonal workers.
4 People entering Manitoba from other provinces less people leaving Manitoba for other provinces (only people in labour force counted).
Figure 3: Percentage of Job Openings by Source
Table 5: Job Openings by Source
Table 6: Top Five Industries Accounting for Most Job Openings for Five-year Period
| Industry | ||
Share of occupations with expected shortages by occupational group refers to the proportion or percentage of all occupations within an occupational group (1-digit NOC) that will experience labour shortages. For example, in this forecast period, 88% of health occupations will experience labour shortages.
Table 7: Percentage of Occupations within Occupational Group to Experience Shortages
| Share of Occupations with Expected Shortages by Group | |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities | |
The list of top 10 skills required by employers is based on the attributes required to secure employment between 2023 and 2027. In total, 38 skills comprise the list. The list of skills and attributes are from the O*NET Content Model data. The model uses Manitoba specific data from the Labour Force Survey and Statistics Canada Census to generate the ranking.
- Active Listening - Giving full attention to understand what others are saying.
- Speaking - Conveying information effectively.
- Reading Comprehension - Understanding written content in work-related documents.
- Critical Thinking - Using logic and reasoning to evaluate solutions or solve problems.
- Monitoring - Assessing performance of yourself and others.
- Social Perceptiveness - Being aware of others' reactions and understanding why they react as they do.
- Coordination - Adjusting actions in relation to other's actions.
- Judgment and Decision Making - Considering the relative costs and benefits of potential actions to choose the most appropriate one.
- Time Management - Managing one's own time and the time of others.
- Writing - Communicating effectively in writing as appropriate for the needs of the audience.
Occupations with the highest predicted number of job openings for forecast period 2023-2027 (5 years).
Table 8: Top 10 Occupations by Total Number of Openings
| Occupation | |
| Elementary school and kindergarten teachers | |
Labour gap is calculated by comparing the expected number of job openings in an occupation with the projected number of workers available in that same occupation. These are the 10 occupations projected to experience the greatest shortage of workers. The gap column indicates the number of positions likely to go unfilled during the 5 years of forecast period.
Table 9: Top 10 Occupations by Total Labour Gap for the Five-year Forecast Period
| Occupation | |
| Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants | |
More detailed information for employers, job seekers, career practitioners, and post-secondary institutions can be found on the other tabs at the top of this page.
Contact Information
Data and Evaluation Unit
Winnipeg, Manitoba
E-mail: lmi@gov.mb.ca
