Manitoba Labour Market Outlook

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Job Openings

 

Key Facts

• 116,300 jobs are projected to open over the five-year forecast period.
• This represents approximately 23,260 job openings each year from 2023 to 2027.
• 70% of job openings will result from the retiring workforce (replacement demand) and 30% are expected to be new jobs created by economic growth (expansion demand).
• Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations will have the highest job openings­ (23,600), followed by sales and service (22,200).
• Approximately 73% of jobs available over the next five years will require post-secondary education.
  

 

 

 

Job Openings by Source

• Job openings due to deaths will remain relatively constant over the forecast period, accounting for 2,400 openings every year.
• Job openings due to retirements are projected to slightly increase from 2023 to 2027.
• In 2023, expansion will account for 49% of total job openings.
• Net interprovincial migration will result in a loss of 24,000 people over the five year period.
• After 2023, replacement demand is expected to significantly exceed expansion demand, making succession planning especially important for businesses and organizations.

 

 

 

Job Openings by Occupational Groups

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The 2023-27 Labour Market Outlook makes projections about Manitoba’s future labour market based on past trends, research and 2022 data. While efforts are made to ensure the Outlook is accurate and comprehensive, it may not capture all labour market developments or recent announcements.

For example, the Outlook does not currently reflect the anticipated increase in early childcare professional job openings that will be created to support the development of 23,000 new childcare spaces. Additionally, the forecast does not capture anticipated job growth in the healthcare sector and the Manitoba government's commitment to create 10,000 new skilled trade jobs over the next eight years.

• Occupations in trades, transport and equipment operation; sales and service; and business, finance and administration will account for over 50% of the total projected job openings over the next five years. The occupation category that offers the fewest job openings (800) is natural resources, agriculture and related productions.
• Job openings due to retirement are expected to be most prominent in natural resources, agriculture and related production where 100% of net openings are expected to result from retirements. This is followed by legislative and senior management occupations (83%) and sales and service occupations (81%).

 

Table 1: Total Job Openings and Replacement Demand by Occupational Group

Occupational Group	Expansion	Replacement	Total job openings	Replacement demand %
Legislative and senior management occupations	200	1,000	1,200	83%
Business, finance and administration occupations	6,100	13,600	19,700	69%
Natural and applied sciences and related occupations	3,300	4,600	7,900	58%
Health occupations	7,300	7,000	14,300	49%
Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services	5,800	11,400	17,200	66%
Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport	800	1,800	2,600	69%
Sales and service occupations	4,200	18,000	22,200	81%
Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations	8,400	15,200	23,600	64%
Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations	-3,100	3,900	800	100%*
Occupations in manufacturing and utilities	2,400	4,400	6,800	65%
Total	35,400	80,900	116,300	70%

* While replacement demand (3,900) exceeds total job openings (800) for this occupation by 4.88 times (488%), the replacement demand percentage is expressed as 100% for the purposes of this table.

 

 

Job Openings by Industry

*

The 2023-27 Labour Market Outlook makes projections about Manitoba’s future labour market based on past trends, research and 2022 data. While efforts are made to ensure the Outlook is accurate and comprehensive, it may not capture all labour market developments or recent announcements.

For example, the Outlook does not currently reflect the anticipated increase in early childcare professional job openings that will be created to support the development of 23,000 new childcare spaces. Additionally, the forecast does not capture anticipated job growth in the healthcare sector and the Manitoba government's commitment to create 10,000 new skilled trade jobs over the next eight years.

• The highest number of job openings in the next five years will be in health care and social assistance with (22,000), followed by wholesale and retail trade (14,900) and construction (12,500).
• Along with educational services (12,000), these industries will account for over half of the job openings in Manitoba over the next five years (61,400). The number of retiring workers that need to be replaced are also highest in these industries (36,200).
• In general, retirement is a larger source of job openings than economic growth in most sectors of Manitoba’s economy, except in construction and forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas.
• Agriculture and business, building and other support services are the two industry groups that will likely see fewer jobs in 2027 than in 2022. All net demand in agriculture is expected to be a result of retirements.

 

 

Job Openings by Skills Levels

Out of 116,300 forecasted job openings, around 72% (84,200) will require at least some post-secondary education and training. The remaining 32,100 openings will not require post-secondary training or education.

 

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